FINAL 2023 Central Section baseball postseason projections

Junior Justin “Moose” Cuellar and Tulare Western have a 14-1 record since the start of April.

By Gabe Camarillo

The Central Section baseball postseason bracket will be revealed in 24 hours. To give a preview of what brackets could look like, I’ve assembled playoff projections for all six divisions.

Keep in mind: these are NOT my rankings. The number next to each team represents their MaxPreps rating, which will be used by the Central Section to seed teams Saturday.

The tie-breakers are implemented as best as possible, but as you tell by the notes for every division — it’s very complicated!

If teams are within two rating points and they are in the same league, the first tie-breaker is how they finished in league standings. If they’re not from the same league, it goes to head-to-head result; if no head-to-head result, then the last tiebreaker is record vs. common opponents.

This is what takes most of Saturday for the Central Section committee to sort out, but brackets are expected to be announced around 3:00.

Teams must be within one division of their base and have a winning percentage of .300 to qualify for the postseason.

For reference, here are the Central Section base divisions for the 2023 high school baseball season:

https://cifcs.org/sports/CS_Baseball_Divisions.pdf

The last thing I’ll say is this disclaimer: these projections are not perfect. However, they should give fans an idea of where their team will be placed Saturday.

Have any comments, corrections, or updates? Reach out at gcamarillo@1430espnfresno.com.

Division I:

1. Bullard (22.7)
2. Buchanan (20.2)
3. Stockdale (21)
4. Redwood (16.9)
5. Clovis (16.3) 
6. Tulare Western (17)
7. Centennial (13.7)
8. Frontier (15.6) 
9. Righetti (15.8)
10. Madera (12.8) 
11. Liberty (13.3)
12. Clovis West (12.1)
13. El Diamante (13.2)
14. Fresno (10.1)
15. Clovis East (10)
16. San Luis Obispo (10)

Division I notes:

– Buchanan is ahead of Stockdale due to common opponent tiebreaker; they beat Bakersfield Christian, which beat Stockdale. Also, Buchanan did not lose to Liberty, but Stockdale did.

– Here is how seeds 4-6 were determined through common opponent W-L record: Redwood beat Liberty, which beat Clovis. Clovis is 6-2-1 against San Joaquin Memorial, Clovis West, Kingsburg and El Diamante; Tulare Western is 3-3 against that same group. 

– Centennial is seeded above Frontier due to River League standings and head-to-head. 

– Frontier is seeded above Righetti due to head-to-head.

– Madera is seeded above Liberty since it beat Centennial, which beat Liberty twice. However, Madera cannot be seeded above Centennial since the Coyotes lost to Frontier.

– Clovis West is seeded above El Diamante since it beat Clovis, which beat El Diamante. However, this sets up two league matchups in the first round. 

– Clovis East is seeded above San Luis Obispo since it beat Righetti and Clovis, which beat SLO. And SLO is above Arroyo Grande because of the Mountain League standings. 

Division II:

1. Bakersfield Christian (18)
2. Cabrillo (13.5) 
3. Lemoore (14)
4. St. Joseph (11.8) 
5. Kerman (12) 
6. Atascadero (11.6)
7. Highland (10.6)
8. Ridgeview (10.5)
9. Arroyo Grande (10.1)
10. Hanford (9.9)
11. Lompoc (8.1) 
12. Central (8.4)
13. Clovis North (7.4)
14. Mission Prep (7.2)
15. Sanger (6.4)
16. San Joaquin Memorial (5.4)

Division 2 notes:

– Cabrillo is seeded above Lemoore since it beat Pioneer Valley, which beat Lemoore.

– St. Joseph is 4-2 against Central, Arroyo Grande, Kingsburg and Righetti. Kerman is 3-4 against that same group. Therefore, the Knights earn the higher seed.

– Ridgeview and Highland meet on the final day of the season, which could influence who earns the No. 7 seed and avoids Bakersfield Christian in the quarterfinal.

– Lompoc is seeded above Central since it beat Arroyo Grande, which beat Central.

– Despite Clovis North sweeping Central, the Central Section values finish in league standings over head-to-head. In this case, 5th place Central is seeded above 6th place Clovis North in the TRAC.

– Dinuba drops down to Division 3 due to head-to-head loss to Central Valley Christian. This allows San Joaquin Memorial to make the Division II bracket as the No. 16 seed. 

Division III:

1. Kingsburg (19.4)
2. Dos Palos (12.9)
3. Fowler (12.8)
4. Washington Union (11.5)
5. Pioneer Valley (11.2)
6. Independence (4.6)
7. Mt Whitney (5) 
8. Mission Oak (4.8) 
9. Garces (4.6)
10. Central Valley Christian (4) 
11. Dinuba (5.9) 
12. Madera South (3.5)
13. Taft (5)
14. Kennedy (6.8)
15. Tehachapi (5.7)
16. Sierra Pacific (4.3)

Division 3 notes:

– After the Top 5 seeds, it gets all jumbled by a host of head-to-head results.

– Independence is seeded above Mt. Whitney due to head-to-head.

– Independence is seeded above Mission Oak since it beat Mt. Whitney, which beat Mission Oak.

– Central Valley Christian is seeded above Dinuba and Taft due to head-to-head. Furthermore, the Cavs are seeded above Tehachapi since it beat Taft, which beat Tehachapi. They are seeded above Sierra Pacific since it beat Dinuba, which beat Sierra Pacific. 

– Madera South is seeded above Taft due to head-to-head. The Stallions are seeded above Tehachapi and Sierra Pacific because Taft beat both of those teams. 

– Important caveat: the ratings came out before the May 11 games. Kennedy lost in extra innings to Chavez after the ratings update and lost the South Sequoia League to Taft. Therefore, Kennedy will drop below Taft in the seedings, but that recent loss is not updated in the MaxPreps ratings yet. 

Division IV:

1. Liberty-Madera (13.6)
2. Morro Bay (3.8) 
3. Arvin (3.4)
4. Immanuel (3.2)
5. Hoover (3.1)
6. Minarets (1.6)
7. Chowchilla (3.3)
8. Golden West (1.7)
9. Reedley (2.1)
10. Wasco (1)
11. Selma (-0.8)
12. Exeter (0.7)
13. Bishop (0.2)
14. Porterville (-0.5)
15. Firebaugh (-1.8)
16. Templeton (-2)

Division 4 notes:

– Minarets is seeded above Chowchilla due to head-to-head.

– Immanuel is seeded above Minarets since it has a win over Central Valley Christian, while Minarets does not. The Eagles are also seeded above Hoover due to head-to-head.

– Hoover is seeded above Minarets since it beat Sunnyside, which beat Minarets.

– Golden West is 3-1 against Garza, Sierra Pacific, Selma and Sanger. Reedley is 4-2 against the same teams. Reedley’s loss to Sierra Pacific – which Golden West doesn’t have – will be the deciding factor.

– Selma is seeded ahead of Exeter due to Tri-County Sequoia standings. 

– East Yosemite League standings do not come into effect for 4th place Porterville and 5th place Golden West since it’s outside two rating points difference. 

– Garza would be in Division 4 if they beat San Joaquin Memorial Friday. 

Division V:

1. Rosamond (-2)
2. Caruthers (-2.3)
3. Fresno Christian (-2.6)
4. Kern Valley (-3.4)
5. Monache (-3.5)
6. Lindsay (-3.8)
7. Yosemite (-3.8)
8. Chavez (-4.1)
9. Mendota (-4.4)
10. Sierra (-2.7)
11. Shafter (-5.3)
12. East Bakersfield (-5)
13. Foothill (-3.9)
14. Coalinga (-5.7)
15. Torres (-6.3)
16. Woodlake (-6.7)

Division 5 notes: 

– Monache is seeded ahead of Lindsay due to head-to-head.

– Lindsay is seeded ahead of Yosemite since it beat Immanuel, which beat Yosemite.

– Yosemite is seeded ahead of Sierra due to league standings. 

– Chavez is seeded ahead of Foothill due to head-to-head. The Titans are also above Mendota due to head-to-head, as well as Sierra, which lost to Mendota.

– Shafter is seeded ahead of East Bakersfield due to head-to-head. East, in turn, owns a head-to-head tiebreaker over Foothill.

Division VI:

1. California City (-7.5)
2. Orange Cove (-9.6)
3. Riverdale (-9.4)
4. Corcoran (-9.4)
5. Mammoth (-10.5)
6. Delano (-12)
7. South Bakersfield (-12.4)
8. Avenal (-13.4)
9. Farmersville (-14.3)
10. Kings Christian (-24)
11. Laton (-25.5)

Division 6 notes: 

– Orange Cove is seeded ahead of Riverdale since it beat Mendota, while Riverdale did not. Also, Orange Cove owns a head-to-head tiebreaker over Corcoran.

– Delano beat South head-to-head, and Avenal beat Farmersville head-to-head.

– With several teams unable to play Division 6 due to base divisions or falling below the required .300 winning percentage, that means only 11 teams in the lowest division. A potential solution is a couple Division 5 teams dropping to D6 to even out the brackets. 

– FInally, there are three teams from the Hi-Lo League that would qualify for Divisions 5 & 6, but they have played a very small number of games. Lone Pine has six games, Lee Vining has five, and Mojave has 13. Perhaps Mojave can make it in D6, but I’m not sure what the minimum number of games played is to qualify for the postseason.