Central Section baseball postseason projections: May 2

By Gabe Camarillo

The Central Section baseball postseason bracket will be revealed in about 10 days. To give a rough preview of what brackets will look like, I’ve assembled playoff projections for all six divisions.

Keep in mind: these are NOT my rankings. The number next to each team represents their MaxPreps rating, which will be used by the Central Section to seed teams after the regular season concludes.

The tie-breakers are implemented as best as possible, but as you tell by the notes in Division I — it’s very complicated!

If teams are within two rating points, the first tie-breaker is head-to-head result; the second is record vs. common opponents; and the third is finish in league standings, only if both teams are within the same league.

Let’s use Division I for example: Madera beat Centennial, and Clovis West beat Clovis East once, which beat Centennial. Therefore, both ball clubs leapfrog Centennial and Liberty, whom lost its series to the Golden Hawks.

What we saw in basketball season was, when it comes to the common opponent tiebreaker, the committee looks at winning percentage. For the Division I boys’ basketball playoffs, Stockdale was 1-0 against Edison, and San Joaquin Memorial was 2-1 against Edison. 1.000 was better than .667, so Stockdale was seeded above Memorial.

I am assuming that the committee will be consistent with this approach. Clovis West is .333 against Clovis East, but Centennial is .000 against the same team. But by that same logic, Liberty is 1.000 against Central, and Clovis West is .667 against Central — so should the Patriots be above the Golden Eagles?

Thus, the last thing I’ll say is this disclaimer: these projections are not perfect. However, they should give fans a rough idea where their team will be placed in 10 days.

Teams must be within one division of their base and have a winning percentage of .300 to qualify for the postseason.

For reference, here are the Central Section base divisions for the 2023 high school baseball season:

https://cifcs.org/sports/CS_Baseball_Divisions.pdf

Have any comments, corrections, or updates? Reach out at gcamarillo@1430espnfresno.com.

Division I:

1. Bullard (22.4)
2. Buchanan (19.1) *common opponent tiebreaker over Stockdale- BCHS 
3. Stockdale (20)
4. Clovis (16.4)
5. Redwood (16.3)
6. Tulare Western (15.9)
7. Frontier (14.9) *H2H win over Righetti 
8. Righetti (15.8)
9. El Diamante (13.4)

10. Clovis West (11.9) *common opponent tiebreaker over Centennial — Clovis East
11. Madera (11.4) *beat Centennial
12. Centennial (12.9) *beat Liberty in season series
13. Liberty-Bakersfield (12.6) *but also Liberty beat Central, which beat CW
14. Clovis East (10.5)
15. Arroyo Grande (10)
16. San Luis Obispo (9.5)

Division 2:

1. Bakersfield Christian (17.9)
2. Cabrillo (13.8) *common opponent tiebreaker over Lemoore – Pioneer Valley
3. Lemoore (15.8)
4. Kerman (12.9)
5. Atascadero (11.4)
6. St. Joseph (10.8)
7. Ridgeview (9.9)
8. Highland (9.7)
9. Hanford (7.9)

10. Clovis North (7.6)
11. Fresno (9.1)
12. Lompoc (7.9)
13. Mission Prep (7.5)
14. Central (7.2)
15. Sanger (6.5)
16. San Joaquin Memorial (5.0)

Division 3: 

1. Kingsburg (19.2)
2. Dos Palos (14.7)
3. Fowler (11.9) *common opponent tiebreaker over PV – Kingsburg
4.  Pioneer Valley (11.9)
5. Washington Union (11.1)
6. Kennedy (6.8)
7. Mission Oak (6.5)
8. Tehachapi (4.9)
9. Independence (4.4)

10. Taft (4.4)
11. Madera South (3.9)
12. Central Valley Christian (3.8)
13. Garces Memorial (3.7)
14. Dinuba 
15. Mt. Whitney
16. Immanuel 

First team out: Edison (3.5)

Division 4:

1. Liberty-Madera (13)
2. Arvin (4)
3. Sierra Pacific (3.2)
4. Chowchilla (2.9)
5. Morro Bay (2.6)
6. Hoover (1.9)
7. Golden West (1.3)
8. Reedley (1)
9. Minarets (0.2)

10. Bishop Union (0)
11. Exeter (0)
12. Garza (-0.6) *needs to win 2 of last 5 games to make playoffs
13. Porterville (-0.8)
14. Wasco (-0.9)
15. Fresno Christian (-2.0)
16. Santa Ynez (-2.4) *needs to win both games of DH vs. SLO

Team out: Bakersfield (-1.9) 

Division 5:

1. Rosamond (-1.3)
2. Firebaugh (-2.4)
3. Caruthers (-2.6)
4. Sierra (-2.7)
5. Monache (-3)
6. Chavez (-3.2)
7. Kern Valley (-4.9)
8. Lindsay (-5)
9. Coalinga (-5.1)

10. Mendota (-5.2)
11. Yosemite (-5.3)
12. Foothill (-5.4)
13. Woodlake (-5.7)
14. Shafter (-6.5)
15. California City (-6.8)
16. Torres (-7.1)

Teams out: Selma (-2.4), Templeton (-2.5), Nipomo (-3.6), Sunnyside (-3.8), Paso Robles (-6.5)

Division 6:

1. Riverdale (-8.6)
2. Mammoth (-9.2)
3. Corcoran (-9.9)
4. Orange Cove (-10)
5. Delano (-11)
6. South Bakersfield (-11.7) *needs to win one against North
7. Mojave (-11.8) *record: 4-6
8. Mira Monte (-12.8)
9. Avenal (-12.6) *record: 3-5

10. Farmersville (-16.3)
11. Strathmore (-18.7)
12. Laton (-23.6)

Teams out: Tulare Union (-7.2), East Bakersfield (-7.5), North Bakersfield (-7.8), Santa Maria (-7.8), Orcutt (-9.0), Hanford West (-9.0), Sanger West (-9.5), Golden Valley (-12.1), McLane (-12.6), Frazier Mountain (-16.4), Roosevelt (-18.2)