The Caruthers Blue Raiders have been hot, winners of six of their last seven. Their seeding stayed the same amid a topsy turvy Division 4 bracket.
By Gabe Camarillo
One more week! This time next week, we’ll know the high school football playoff brackets.
Going into the final games of the regular season, I took a snapshot of what they look like right now.
The actual brackets come out next Saturday, October 29. Before we dive into projected brackets, here are five things to know:
1. These are NOT my rankings or brackets. These were pulled from CalPreps.com, and I applied the tiebreakers like the Central Section will on 10/29.
2. Speaking of tiebreakers, here are the rules. If teams are within two rating points of each other on CalPreps.com, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head result between them. The next tiebreaker, if both teams are in the same league, is finish in league standings. The final tiebreaker is record vs. common opponents.
3. Every team has a base division. They can either play one division higher or lower than their base, depending on where they are ranked by CalPreps’ computers. No higher and no lower.
4. I highlighted select teams in BOLD. BOLD teams are currently 2-7 and need to win their last game or miss playoffs. The minimum winning percentage to make playoffs is .300, or a record of 3-7.
5. One more interesting twist, something I learned last season — the CalPreps predicted score plays a factor into ratings, especially if the predicted winner loses.
IMPORTANT NOTE: If there aren’t enough qualified teams to fill Division 2 through 6 with 16 teams, D2 might have 12 teams with the top four receiving byes.
Updated as of 10/23/2022, 12:30 P.M. PST
Division 1 (rating):
1 Clovis West (41.9)
2 Buchanan (40.8)
3 Liberty-Bakersfield (40.2)
4 San Joaquin Memorial (38.6)
5 Central (39.2)
6 St Joseph (32.5)
7 Clovis North (27)
8 Clovis (25.1)
9 Clovis East (26.2)
10 Garces (23.6)
11 Centennial (23.2)
12 Redwood (22.1)
Notes:
Despite Central’s higher rating, SJM beat Central in Week 2, so they’ll be seeded higher… Clovis North, Clovis and Clovis East will be ordered by league standings since they’re all from the TRAC. All three beat each other, so head-to-head can’t determine anything… Garces broke into D1, dropping Hanford to D2 in the process. Although Hanford is rated higher than Redwood, Redwood won head-to-head.
Projected matchups:
9 Clovis East at 8 Clovis / 1 Clovis West BYE
12 Redwood at 5 Central / 4 Memorial BYE
11 Centennial at 6 St Joseph / 3 Liberty BYE
10 Garces at 7 Clovis North / 2 Buchanan BYE
Division 2:
1 Central Valley Christian (38.1)
2 Kingsburg (30.4)
3 Lemoore (25.3)
4 Hanford (22.3)
5 Bakersfield Christian (17.8)
6 Frontier (12.9)
7 Sanger (10.8)
8 Washington Union (10.7)
9 Dinuba (8.5)
10 Paso Robles (8)
11 Lompoc (7)
12 Bullard (6.6)
13 Golden West (5)
14 Tehachapi (4.8)
15 Ridgeview (4.6)
16 Bakersfield (2.2)
FIRST TEAM OUT: Edison (3.8)
Notes:
By beating Bullard, Sanger earned a home playoff game. Their rating may be boosted further by facing SJM… Ridgeview jumped into D2 after beating Bakersfield… Bakersfield and Edison are close in ratings, but the Drillers’ head-to-head win pushes them into the playoff picture — and bumps the Tigers out. A lot of scenarios could play out next week, including one where both teams make the D2 bracket.
Projected matchups:
16 Bakersfield at 1 CVC
9 Dinuba at 8 Washington Union
13 Golden West at 4 Hanford
12 Bullard at 5 Bakersfield Christian
14 Tehachapi at 3 Lemoore
11 Lompoc at 6 Frontier
10 Paso Robles at 7 Sanger
15 Ridgeview at 2 Kingsburg
Division 3:
1 Mission Prep (14.6)
2 Porterville (7.3)
3 Chavez (6.6)
4 Kerman (5.4)
5 Arroyo Grande (3.4)
6 Tulare Union (2.4)
7 Santa Ynez (2.2)
8 Mission Oak (1.6)
9 Highland (-0.1)
10 Kennedy (1.4)
11 Sunnyside (0.3)
12 San Luis Obispo (0)
13 Mt. Whitney (-5.7)
14 Independence (-7.1)
15 Wasco (-8.4)
16 Atascadero (-8.8)
Notes:
Arroyo Grande beat Santa Ynez and surged ahead of them in the seedings… Tulare Union is seeded higher than Mission Oak with its head-to-head win… Highland jumped ahead of Kennedy thanks to its head-to-head win… Atascadero (6-3, 5-0 Ocean League) climbed into D3 after beating D6 Cabrillo.
Projected matchups:
16 Atascadero at 1 Mission Prep
9 Highland at 8 Mission Oak
13 Mt. Whitney at 4 Kerman
12 San Luis Obispo at 5 Arroyo Grande
14 Independence at 3 Chavez
11 Sunnyside at 6 Tulare Union
10 Kennedy at 7 Santa Ynez
15 Wasco at 2 Porterville
Division 4:
1 Liberty-Madera (-0.9)
2 Taft (-3.7)
3 Shafter (-6.2)
4 Torres (-6.2)
5 Caruthers (-6.6)
6 Reedley (-9.3)
7 Corcoran (-11.1)
8 Garza (-11.3)
9 Fowler (-9.7)
10 Coalinga (-10)
11 North (-10.8)
12 Tulare Western (-10.9)
13 Madera (-12.3)
14 Dos Palos (-13.3)
15 Strathmore (-12.7)
16 Exeter (-13.5)
Notes:
Higher rated Fowler and Coalinga lost head-to-head matchups to Corcoran and Garza, respectively. Despite being rated lower, Corcoran and Garza jump ahead in seedings… Tulare Western needs to win the Bell Game or miss the playoffs… Dos Palos beat Mendota, which beat Strathmore. Therefore, the Broncos are seeded higher.
Projected matchups:
16 Exeter at 1 Liberty-Madera
9 Fowler at 8 Garza
13 Madera at 4 Torres
12 Tulare Western at 5 Caruthers
14 Dos Palos at 3 Shafter
11 North at 6 Reedley
10 Coalinga at 7 Corcoran
15 Strathmore at 2 Taft
Division 5:
1 Bishop (-4.7)
2 Templeton (-14.1)
3 Madera South (-15.6)
4 Monache (-16.3)
5 Delano (-18.1)
6 Arvin (-16.1)
7 Morro Bay (-16.8)
8 Santa Maria (-19.7)
9 Golden Valley (-20.2)
10 Pioneer Valley (-20.4)
11 McLane (-20.9)
12 Woodlake (-24.9)
13 Hanford West (-23)
14 Immanuel (-22.2)
15 Mendota (-23.2)
16 Roosevelt (-25.8)
Notes:
Monache needs to beat D3 Porterville to make playoffs. The Marauders are seeded above Arvin since they beat Chavez, which beat Arvin … Roosevelt needs to take the Little Big Game over Fresno to qualify… Delano beat Golden Valley, which beat Arvin. Therefore, Delano leaps ahead of Arvin in seedings… Woodlake beat Hanford West, which beat Immanuel. The Tigers leapfrog both teams.
Projected matchups:
16 Roosevelt at 1 Bishop
9 Golden Valley at 8 Santa Maria
13 Hanford West at 4 Monache
12 Woodlake at 5 Delano
14 Immanuel at 3 Madera South
11 McLane at 6 Arvin
10 Pioneer Valley at 7 Morro Bay
15 Mendota at 2 Templeton
Division 6:
1 Chowchilla (-26.2)
2 Avenal (-26.2)
3 Firebaugh (-31.2)
4 Orosi (-31.3)
5 Sierra Pacific (-31.6)
6 Boron (-32.6)
7 Kern Valley (-34.2)
8 Riverdale (-34.2)
9 Lindsay (-34.9)
10 Cabrillo (-35.2)
11 Farmersville (-38.9)
12 Mira Monte (-39.1)
13 Yosemite (-39.9)
14 Foothill (-43.6)
15 McFarland (-44.8)
16 Orange Cove (-48.5)
Notes:
Several D6 teams need wins to make playoffs. Mira Monte at Foothill will eliminate one of those teams… Depending on how many of these teams lose, both D2 and D3 could field 12 teams in order to fill brackets. Stay tuned.
Projected matchups:
16 Orange Cove at 1 Chowchilla
9 Lindsay at 8 Riverdale
13 Yosemite at 4 Orosi
12 Mira Monte at 5 Sierra Pacific
14 Foothill at 3 Firebaugh
11 Farmersville at 6 Boron
10 Cabrillo at 7 Kern Valley
15 McFarland at 2 Avenal
